An optimistic message of ECB foreman Mario Draghi helped the Amsterdam stock exchange on Thursday additional profits. The massive bond buying program, the central bank will start next week, which is good news for equities. Fugro excelled in Amsterdam, while OCI readily sold
.
The AEX index was around half past five 1.1% higher at 489.1 points. Midcap Index gained 1.1% ahead at 730.9 points.
Elsewhere in Europe, the gains were also further increased. Paris and Frankfurt both climbed about 1.1%.
On the German stock market was Adidas up 3.4%. The sporting goods maker predicted for this year earnings growth of 7 to 10%. Also in Frankfurt Internet retailer Zalando rewarded with 4.1% price gain for the annual figures. The company this year predicts revenue growth of 20 to 25%.
Wall Street was pretty good start. After about an hour trading was the S & amp; P 500 0.2% gain, while the Dow Jones index 0.3% bijpakte. A disappointing figures on US factory orders eventually made little impression.
Focus on ECB
Investors had concerned itself mainly with an eye for the press conference European Central Bank. This time, ECB President Draghi said the markets as from Cyprus. As was widely expected, the central bank kept interest rates unchanged.
The markets also looked forward to the above explanation of Draghi. The Italian came with an optimistic message about the European economy. The outlook for economic growth this year and in 2016 were revised upwards (see the PDF document here.)
The inflation forecast for 2016 went up. For 2017, the ECB expects inflation in the eurozone of 1.8%. Thus the inflation comes very close to the objective of the ECB, inflation will of just under 2%.
Chief Economist Bart Van Craeynest Petercam particularly struck the optimistic tone of Draghi’s message. “If you look purely at the economic data, it seems as if” we “are already there with the economy,” he said after the press conference. “You would almost wonder why that QE program is still needed.”
‘Put not muted
But in the question-and-answer session with journalists nuanced Draghi that picture even slightly, Van Craeynest noted. “In it he also know that there is still some work to do. Cyclical it looks good for the economy of the euro zone, but that is mainly due to lower oil prices.”
According to of Craeynest stated that development during the press conference also the strange jumps in the euro / dollar and yields on German government bonds for example. The euro initially rose against the dollar after Draghi’s optimistic message, but later shifted investors yet again attention to the huge bucket of money coming into the market from the ECB, and dropped the single currency back.
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The euro fell initially to $ 1.1007, the lowest level since 2003. Around half past five the currency was again what rebounded to $ 1.103
The Chief Economist continues. “We should not be too optimistic again be on the euro area. Because we should not forget that we in recent years have dug a deep pit in the eurozone. The eurozone is still 4.7 million jobs below the level of early 2008, and there is still overcapacity in the industry . So we still need several years of strong growth to fill the pit. “
In addition, Van Craeynest pointed out that the 1.8% that the ECB cites inflation rate including the price of oil . “The ‘core inflation’ – so no include the price of oil – is still well below the desired level.”
Huge buyback program
Draghi said in his speech, not too many details about the huge buy-back program of bonds. However, he said the program starts at 9 March. In addition, the Italian reported that the central bank will not buy bonds with yields below the level of the deposit rate (-0.2%).
AFS analyst Arne Petimezas had prior to the press conference predicted that the ECB that limit would be set. “On the one side parking banks reserves with the ECB and on the other hand, the bank receives yield on bonds that they will buy. The difference between them is what earns the ECB. It is not likely that they will buy bonds with yields below the current deposit rate of -0.2%. “
According Petimezas AFS there is now a kind of cat-and-mouse game going on between the ECB and the bond market, said the analyst. Many parties have in fact long-empts the buy-back program by storing into loans they expect the ECB will buy.
‘Not too much impact
That is precisely why expected shortly Petimezas not too much impact the buy-back program in the markets. “The great movement has been already.”
The AFS analyst continues, “Draghi will hope that the soil in the inflation rate is now over, and that the interest among market participants bonds to the ECB selling will grow. Because once the bond market growth and inflation expectations and higher interest rates are pricing in, you suffer sell quickly lose your bonds, and you can get them better to the ECB. “
From Craeynest think that the impact of the buy-back program is already largely priced in. “We saw in the US also. The announcement of the program had a greater effect than the actual achieving them.”
Higher growth in the Netherlands
The Bank of England came to one hour with all its interest rate decision. As expected the key interest rate in Britain remained unchanged at 0.5%.
From Netherlands was positive news. The CPB has revised upwards the growth forecast for the country in 2015 to 1.7%. Furthermore, the inflation in our country something attracted in January, reported the Central Bureau of Statistics.
In addition, the German Ministry of Economic Affairs made a strong decline in factory orders for the month of January.
Fugro favorite
In the AEX was the leading role Fugro with a price gain of 4.6% after a buy recommendation SNS Securities.
AkoNobel was 2.8%. The company has won an order to supply a coating for chemical tankers. Financial details were not reported.
Altice knew the negative start to quickly turn and got there at 2.3%. French cable operator reported for purse a drop in profits and sales in 2014 partly due to a loss of customers and pricing pressure in France. Analysts pointed out that ING Altice reaps the benefits of the rapid integration of acquisitions.
Gemalto lost after a higher starting 2.4%. The digital security guard knew last year to improve operating profit and sales, but organic growth fell analyst at Rabobank.
CB yield 6%. The company reported yesterday after market close 11% of the pieces are part of Orascom to the fair to bring in Egypt. The afsplisting will formally March 7th place. OCI morning also received a downgrade from Deutsche Bank. The advice went down from “buy” to “hold.”
ASMI pressure
In the Midcap was ASMI 3.6% decline. The supplier to the semiconductor industry was tonight announced its annual results. Despite good prospects for the first half of 2015 and a dividend increase of 20% could not really please the figures investors. Analysts expressed disappointment at the operating profit in the fourth quarter.
Broadcaster USG People led with 5.6% gain. TNT followed with an increase of 4.4%. Imtech was after beating earlier this week now 4.2% ahead.
AscX share IT 2.1% fell, despite the automation again gains in 2014. The company expects this year to further improve the results.
Grontmij 2.4% was put up, after the engineering firm reported a Rijkswaterstaat for the next two years. The yield was not mentioned.
The builders Heijmans (+ 5.1%) and Ballast Nedam (+ 3.8%) had a fine day.
Local Fund Pharming the 3.2% rate seen donning. The biotechnology fund benefited last year from increased sales and managed to reduce the loss significantly.
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