Rabobank: nexit would be disastrous for our economy – NOS

Politicians claim that the Netherlands without economic problems the European Union can leave, claim nonsense. Economists of the Rabobank in a report published today that a nexit us a lot of money it will cost.

Ten economists of the bank researched for months what the economic impact of the four directions of the Netherlands in the coming time, can go: more or less cooperation with other European countries, and more or less powers for the union. For example, when it comes to mutual trade or the approach of the readmission clause.

“We have this project under more started because we noticed that there is going to be very easy it is said, we get out of Europe, we have Europe not at all necessary,” says economist Barbara Baarsma, who worked on the research.

The report describes four scenarios of the future.

In the first scenario we will continue on the path we now walk, the union and keep the euro. But the cooperation between member states is not from the heart, which leads to half-hearted measures for the solving of problems. ‘Doormodderen called the Rabobank.

Not a good idea, according to the economists. The causes for the growing discontent among the population and the economic growth will not really get off the ground. It will lead to one of the three other scenarios.

Political supporters and opponents of the EU

find This Buma, Rutte, Announced, Wilders and Cameron of participation in the European Union.

So can we, out of fear for the misery such as trade barriers that the brexit with it appears to bring, opt for more European cooperation. We invest jointly in better surveillance at the external borders to illegal immigrants and to make agreements with North African countries on early childhood in the region. Also get the Southern European countries, since the crisis are burdened with the strict European budget rules, what more air through those lines to relax.

The brexit it could also be the opposite

sentiment to contribute. The cooperation between member states is deteriorating and solidarity disappears. A major crisis, and the Union falls apart. “Brussels is a city of ghosts,” writes the bank. The economic consequences of this scenario are disastrous, especially for the Netherlands.

“the Netherlands is hugely linked to the rest of the EU”, light Baarsma. “We have a very small domestic market, the rest of the EU is our market.” There are also a lot of goods via the Netherlands again made. That trade will for a large part through our port in Rotterdam.

If it is suddenly much more difficult for the rest of Europe to enter, then not only will the employment in the ports will decrease, predicts Baarsma. “Also, employment in the rest of the country. We earn a lot with each other and with the export, that will decrease. So we have less money for education, less for care.”

There is one last scenario, according to the Rabobank, a kind of middle ground. The disagreement within the union continues to exist, but instead of slamming hassle out of each other, member states shall maintain a cool head. They decide the EU to split, but work together to make the harmful effects to a minimum.

In that case, there remains a kernunie, which strongly interacts and powers of members. The lagging countries are working on individual topics, such as, for example, military. The netherlands will not break. Although this is not as beneficial will extract as deeper European cooperation, economic growth will eventually be higher, and unemployment lower than in the ‘doormodderen” scenario.

in Which direction it will go with Europe, will be coming time by voters and politicians to be determined. According to the Rabobank economists will in the coming five years, “the most important political choices to be made that the future of our continent.”