‘Dutch economy will rise next year something’ – NU.nl

'Dutch economy will rise next year something' – NU.nl

According to a Thursday published estimate of the Central Planning Bureau (CPB).

The growth was mainly driven by exports, but also the improving household consumption and improved purchasing power for consumers herein driving forces, the planning agency writes. The recovery remains generally still fragile.

The labor market seems to recover slightly, unemployment fell from 605,000 unemployed this year to 570,000 in 2015. In the previous forecast, the planning office went out of 620,000 and 605,000 unemployed in 2014 and 2015 respectively Negotiated wages for 2015 by a quarter percentage upwards.

this December estimate is an updated version of the Macro Economic Outlook (MEV) from September The figures of the CPB serve as guidelines for government policy.

Move the cursor over the line to see the percentages of . The data comes from the CPB. – (C) NU.nl/Jerry Warn

Risks

Despite the slight recovery, there remain risks that could disrupt further growth. First CPB warns the international world trade and world GDP.

“The continued negative combination of low growth and low inflation in the euro area investment can

 and dampen consumption and slow economic recovery, “the planning office. Also potentially escalating situation in Russia could harm Europe’s economic growth.

In addition, the development of low inflation is a second uncertainty. It allows planburau his earlier calculation for 2015 downwards which is now kept in mind that the prices of goods and services by 1 percent rise in an earlier estimate was that a quarter percent higher.

For 2014 the forecast remains an inflation rate of 1 percent unchanged. The low inflation is largely attributable to the low oil prices. They are this year declined by about 40 percent.

Deflation

risk of low inflation, where the euro area is struggling with is that it can turn into deflation. “In the first place, deflation lead to an increase in the debt problems of households and the government,” warns the planning office.

Deflation increases money namely in value, including debt. This may have a negative effect on consumption, but the CPB considers the risk of prolonged deflation “slight.”

Additional assessment

The state of public finances in 2015 show a slightly better picture. The CPB expects that year a government deficit of 1.8 percent of GDP, in a previous forecast was 2.2 percent. For this year, the deficit just revised upwards from 2.6 to 2.8 percent.

This increase of 0.2 percent can be traced back to the additional tax that was Netherlands from Europe, hence the need Government 642 million euro transfer to Brussels. In all cases, the government meets the three percent limit set by the European Stability and Growth Pact.

That does not apply, for the Dutch national debt. Which fluctuates quite some time around 70 percent of GDP, which is far above the agreed maximum of 60 percent.

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By: NU.nl/Edo van der Goot