Recovery continues, inflation again slightly higher – Financieele Dagblad (Registration)

The recovery of the Dutch economy accelerated. This year the economy grew by 2.0% and next year by 2.1%. This positive view is in line with developments elsewhere in Europe, with growth rates in the Netherlands are at the top of the range. Inflation is next year by 1.2%, to the detriment of purchasing power.

This enables the Central Planning Bureau in the ‘June estimate’, which was published Wednesday. The expectations of the CPB are in line with those of the Dutch Central Bank, on Monday came out.

Consumption draws

All spending categories contribute according to the CPB to the recovery. The relevant world trade growing by 4.0% in 2015 and 5.2% in 2016. In 2015 also attract household consumption and business investment to. The forecast for economic growth for this and next year is therefore adjusted upwards towards the Central Economic Plan (CEP) 2015. In March, the agency went from a growth of 1.7% this year and 1.8% about 2016

Inflation

In the wake of the economic recovery, employment will increase. In the private sector employment is growing in 2015 by 0.9% and in 2016 even by 1.5%. Unemployment is down from 660,000 people in 2014 to 625,000 this year and 600,000 next year. Inflation in the Netherlands as in the rest of Europe low, but has increased in recent months by rising oil prices and a lower exchange rate of the euro against the dollar. On this basis the estimate revised upwards for this year from -0.1% to 0.2%. Next year inflation to be 1.2%, which was still deployed in March at 0.9%.

This slightly higher inflation roost in purchasing power. Went CPB in March forecast a plus for the purchasing power this year of 1.2%, plus which is now revised to 1.0%. For next year was a nulletje in the books, and that has now become a minus of 0.3%.

Low Interest

The public deficit will rise this year to 1.9% of GDP next year and to 0.8% of GDP . The ongoing economic recovery has a positive effect on tax revenue, while less spending on unemployment benefits. Low interest rates reduce interest payments by the government. These factors are partly offset by declining natural gas. Higher interest rates and lower gas revenues form this year and next a negative risk for the EMU balance.

The CPB is about the budget deficit On balance, slightly less optimistic than the Nederlandsche Bank. Which provides for a decline this year to 1.6% for 2016 and 0.9% in the books.

Government deficit

Next year the general government deficit, the EMU balance, according to the CPB 0.3 % of GDP reduced by a one-off discount on the Dutch contribution to the European Union. The CPB concludes sternly: “The distance from the EMU balance, as agreed in the coalition agreement is underlying thus considerably smaller than the current estimate suggests.

The national debt starts for the first time in years to take off. Was the EMU debt in 2014 still 68.5% of gross domestic product that year, 2015 is provided 76.6% and 65.4% next year it could be.