The fourteen oil-exporting countries (OPEC) yesterday agreed to the production of oil to reduce. They will be 700.000 oil barrels per day less production, so the price of oil to increase. This can lead to a higher price at the pump, but it is also a sign of crisis within the oil world.
The OPEC nations have agreed to their joint production to reduce to 32.5 to 33 million barrels per day. In november, the proposal shall be signed and further agreements are made. For example, it is not yet clear how the limitation will be divided between the connected countries.
Oil
If the countries there come true, this would be a higher oil price may result. That we would then the next day all brands at the gas pump. However, it is still very doubtful whether this is the case, argues Paul van Selms, director of United Consumers. ,,There are still some steps to go before this its seizure. First, the agreement should be signed, must be acted upon and when acted upon, is the question of whether the influence which it exercises is sufficient.” Provisionally expect experts that the petrol prices for the rest of the year hardly will change.
That a reduction in output would be good for the olielanden, there we agree. By over-supply and disappointing demand, the price of oil fell in recent years from well above the 100 dollars per barrel to one dollar, or 30, at the low point. The agreement Is a desperate act? ,,From the OPEC for sure”, says Van Selms. It is, of course, deeply sad that you are not able to your business to maintain a high level on the basis of the current prices.” Since the intention was announced, it increased the price of a barrel of oil to around 50 dollars. In the course of Thursday, it went back to around 48,50 dollar per barrel.
Critics
Critics of Citigroup are especially curious about whether the OPEC countries adhere to the agreements. Also news agencies Reuters and Bloomberg report that the organization is getting known that afpraken not always be respected and that member states regularly produce more than advance was agreed. Additionally, Iran recently lifted EU sanctions is still not at its normal production. Internal conflicts are also Nigeria and Libya are still not at their normal level. Or those countries, immediately want to surrender, is the question.
Because of the usually conflicting interests within OPEC is the afpraak for many as a surprise. Van Selms notes that the surprise also has to do with the lost faith in OPEC. When the organization was founded in 1960, had this much influence because there are few alternatives for oil. Now that is different: the emergence of shale gas, green energy and the many new oil wells discovered, the position of the OPEC considerably weakened. ,,That it is for the market as a shock, especially to that no-one had expected from OPEC,” he says. ,,Everyone thought: ‘that time is past’. Now, there are a small revival, also in the price of oil, but the question marks remain. And there are only more individuals.”
Understand by that alternative energy sources can agree, when it comes, itself the neck to turn over, says Van Selms. ,,It could be that the price of oil slightly rises as a result of this appointment, but if the price rises too hard, alternatives such as shale gas and drilling deep into the seabed much more attractive. Then there will be more competition in the oil market itself. In addition, the demand for oil decreases by fuel-efficient cars. It is strongly the question of how much such a reduction of two per cent out of it.”
Indolent
The problem with OPEC is, according to Van Selms by the ‘vadsigheid’ of the organization. The budgets of the member states are very dependent on the incomes from oil, so they are not good to deal with the lower prices and many alternatives. ,,The consumption living within our means, or live with the lower oil prices and thus learn to cope, quite a lot of those countries, not based on their standard of living. Saudi Arabia could by their stocks, because that is a rich country. Other countries, for example in Central America, will just produce more as long as their revenue only from it. That convert the faucet just a little further open.”
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