– 08/14/14, 14:20
© anp. Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem will not be surprised by the new economic figures that CBS and CPB presented today.
The CPB today opens its press release on the latest estimates for the change with an exorbitant budget deficit, but with the threat of international conflict for the Dutch economy. The obligatory response Jeroen Dijsselbloem Minister of Finance – “Hopeful, but recovery remains fragile” – shows that the government boat, as yet, has sent economic calmer waters. However, the safe harbor is not yet reached.
The minister will today relatively relaxed the latest figures have taken unto himself. First, the back of the Central Bureau of Statistics: half a percent growth in the second quarter compared to the first three months of this year. And compare it to a year ago, and growth is even 0.9 percent. Exports are picking up and unemployment is not finished yet, but increases less rapidly. Two days ago, CBS calculated that “only” 0.1 percent of Dutch exports hit by the Russian boycotts: Also nice for peace of mind.
Then the CPB, purveyor of financial predictions: the economy is growing this year with three-quarter percent, employment reached the bottom and will then grow again. Slightly less good news, the government deficit is running this year to 2.7 percent. (But it was the fiscal crisis in 2013 already under the dreaded European 3 percent Yes, in hindsight, the deficit was reduced to 2.3 percent.) In 2014, the expenditure can again walk a little more out of step with the income. According to the CPB, which is partly due to lower natural gas and the lack of a telecom auction (end of 2012, the government took 4 billion euros on the sale of 4G frequencies).
Bearing deficit in 2015
In 2015, the deficit would decline according to the CPB again to 2.1 percent (of gross domestic product a approximately 600 billion or more more than 12 billion euros of expenditure where no income across it). Hence Dijsselbloem says, “Also, the public finances are not yet in order; deficit close to 2 percent is not the end. ” Officially, the aim of the government to achieve a balanced budget in the long term or even a surplus, but the pressure of the boiler is now the Netherlands is no longer with the European Commission as one of the European countries at risk.
For now climbs steadily Netherlands so the downturn, but hosanna is still no. External factors can throw a spanner in the works. CPB warns of the impact of tensions in Eastern Europe and the Middle East on the Dutch economy. The predictions are a further escalation of the civil wars in Ukraine and Iraq are not included. , Violence still further to the Dutch economy next year, a quarter to a half percent drop in growth.
European issues
The ailing economies in other euro countries can have a stagnating effect on the Dutch economy. The Italian and German economy shrank slightly, the French economy showed no growth in the past quarter. Average was the economy of the eurozone in recent months still. Europe suffers from a disappointing performance in China, the USA and Japan and the many trouble spots in the world: Ukraine, Iraq, Syria, Israel and Palestine. But the euro countries continue to suffer from internal problems. Italy and France were too slow with the implementation of necessary reforms. Exports of German industry to the Eurozone fell last month by more than 10 percent.
The figures indicate minister Dijsselbloem enough information to confidently next week to deal with coalition parties PvdA and VVD and allied opposition parties D66, Christian Union and SGP. Budget negotiations He still needs to gain support for unpopular crisis packages billion in cuts. No support In fact, he will have to do lots of presents not to say his best. He will be the economic experts of the parties warn of the many uncertainties that threaten Dutch recovery from outside the country.
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