In all economic blocs in the world, the activity this year and was lower in 2016 than expected, with the exception of the United States. The sharp drop in oil prices provides insufficient compensation.
This enables the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in a new version of its World Economic outlook. The multilateral institution in Washington, the growth forecast for the world economy by 0.3 percentage point decrease to 3.5%. For 2016 there is 3.7% in the vessel, while there has been changed in October from 4.0%.
‘Complicated mosaic
Commenting chief economist Olivier Blanchard calls the global economic picture a complicated mosaic ” . The price decreases on the commodities market are good news for importers, but bad news for exporters, said the Frenchman. The weaker euro and yen are positive for countries that more coins that are affiliated and negative for the countries that are more linked to the dollar. Finally there are the countries that have held scars of the crisis. “These countries continue to struggle; other countries have less problems there, “says Blanchard.
The developed economies can count this year and next at 2.4% growth. The eurozone is sitting there with 1.2% and 1.4% respectively over under, but the region late from a min of 0.5% in 2013 and an increase of 0.8% in 2014 still see a nice recovery. Apart from cheaper oil, growth is underpinned by additional incentives from the central bank, a weaker euro and the fact that the worst austerity operations are now behind us
Gloom on investment
On the other hand, the outlook for investment less favorable, partly because the export sector encounter weaker demand in emerging countries. Thus, the growth in China will not exceed 7% now come the authorities there try to minimize the risks of a credit-financed investment bubble.
Russia and other commodity-exporting countries more sensitive touch of the price declines in the energy and metals markets. The sharply declining capital inflows may also uncover all sorts of vulnerabilities in their balance sheets, the IMF suggests. The potential market turmoil caused by this may widen further as the major central banks to change their policies. For example, the US Fed interest rates faster than expected acceleration, is a reversal of the flow of capital to various emerging markets a substantial risk, according to the fund.
Strong growth in USA
The US economy is likely to have only some trouble with the more expensive dollar . But the positive economic forces provide more than sufficient counterweight. Growth this year attracts whatsoever to from 3.3% to 3.5% and to 3.7% next year. In turn, Japan does not exceed 0.6% this year and 0.8% in 2016.
IMF chief Christine Lagarde calls for some time for bolder steps to grow the world economy. She previously labeled the weak recovery in the last six years as the new average. The biggest economic threats include in its still high government debt and high unemployment. Structural reforms are in her eyes crucial.
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